Australia is currently undergoing a significant domestic energy transformation. The momentum to limit new residential gas connections is on the rise, and simultaneous efforts are underway to streamline the disconnection process for existing gas connections. Amidst these dynamic changes, the gas lobby is actively resisting the transition.
But what does it all really mean?
From 2024 all new homes and government buildings will be all electric
Gas to electric customers are reporting reductions in household energy costs.
The Government claims going all electric will save a household $1000/year.
ACT banned gas already and Victoria is following. Victoria is the largest gas user in the country.
Energy experts, like the Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood, believe other states will eventually get households off gas..
The Grattan Institute claims that gas that used to be plentiful and cheap is no longer plentiful and cheap. And so, for the majority of people, when their gas appliances need to be replaced, converting to electricity, that would save money.
The second thing is that would contribute to emissions reduction and for Victoria, household emissions from burning gas in our homes is a big deal and so we don't meet our targets unless we get off burning gas.
They also accepts emissions will probably go up in Victoria in the short term as households get off gas, but says in the long term they will go down. This is connected to the current usage of brown coal fired power plants which are now generating the electricity that homes use. As those plants are decommissioned, emissions are expected to go down.
The current service of Victoria's coal fired power plants is expected to end between 2030 and 2035 but is under hot political debate.
Currently gas contributes to ~17% of carbon emissions in Victoria.
According to the latest Victorian government report on greenhouse gas emissions, gas use in homes and small businesses was responsible for 10.5% of Victoria’s climate pollution in 2020. That’s about 8.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide pollution.
What else is gas doing to the environment?
- Gas, primarily composed of methane, has a global warming impact 75 times higher than carbon dioxide over a relevant timeframe for international climate targets.
- Methane emissions are increasing rapidly, surpassing a 150% rise compared to pre-industrial era levels, while carbon dioxide emissions are roughly 50% higher.
Interestingly some reports from authorities claim Victoria's gas ban on new homes will reduce childhood asthma
What can go wrong with the proposed move?
- The government has been accused of greenwashing because of the immediate increase in emissions.
- Industry claims it will unavoidably drive cost up with simple economics of supply and demand.
- Industry questions the accuracy of the governments measure on emissions of gas.
Electrically, what does it mean? (My favourite part)
- There are significant system strength shortfalls in North Western Victoria. AEMO has also declared a 312 MVA fault level shortfall (generally referred to as a system strength gap) at Red Cliffs Terminal Station in north-west Victoria
- To completely remove limitations in the West Murray region, significant network augmentation is required. Currently there are two major projects expected to be delivered for the region within the next five years.
- Ballarat to Waubra 220 kV line for trip of either Murra Warra to Kiamal (V>V_NIL_6) or Kiamal to Red Cliffs (V>V_NIL_8). This line has a temperature-based rating and will limit semi-scheduled generation connected to this line to approximately 620 MW.
- Further generator connections are not feasible without significant investment.
- The West Murray region currently has around 1,200 MW of committed to inverter-based generation projects and about 3,000 MW in the application phase. The currently identified maximum thermal network limit for the West Murray region is 1,700 MW.
- So the electricity network is constrained in it's capacity to take on more load and generation
- Lot's of work is required to alleviate this. We should not be afraid of this work but need to acknowledge there is a mountain to climb already and the gas ban will further intensify the challenge.